Daughter rises, voters grow

So will Park Geun-hye win the presidential elections in 2012? I would say yes. But it may be the last victory in her life. In next elections candidates may be still the same but the voters by then - will change.

"The daughter also rises" had been the title of a radio report on Park Geun-hye some years ago when she had accepted her position in hannara for the first time. Unquestionably the daughter has risen but it seems Korean society is rising too.

The daughter of president Park Chung-hee author of Korea's economic miracle, had decided to go back into politics some years ago after about 20 years of safe career in educational and cultural institutions.

For the first time she was forced to get into the political stage as the First Lady after her mother died in an attempt to kill her father in 1974. After the coup d'etat in 1979 when her father was killed by the boss of KCIA, she had withdrawn into the shadow.

Hannara used her as an electoral sausage hoping that the legend of her father may bring voters to the party. It was a good step back then. In 1997 Koreans had to adjust to painful reforms and changes in the whole economic system caused by pressure from the International Monetary Fund. Nostalgy for president Park Chung-hee who reminded them of the golden era in their country and created an unifying myth of a strong nation had skyrocketed in that moment. In 1998 Park Geun-hye was elected to the parliament and is called Queen of Elections because she keeps being elected ever since and has not lost yet. In 2004 she became the leader of Hannara and in 2006 she led successful campain that ended rules of the Kims.

She became more and more popular over the years. Last October several CATI polls had been made by JongAngIlbo and SBS Broadcast, both of them give her 45% chances to become next president of the Republic of Korea. But in 2007 she lost pre-elections in her own party loosing battle for nomination with then mayor of Seoul now president Lee Myeong-bak.

This is indeed an interesting phenomemon for a woman to lead the conservative party in Asia and also for a woman to become chief candidate for the next president. In neoconfucian society which is only superficially globalized by now, this is an achievement.

An achievement so important that  a number of sociological studies had been done about so far. Among them Maria Huestenbeck had written a large work about Park's daughter: Park Geun-hye: Als Präsidententochter zur ersten Staatspräsidentin Südkoreas? where she explains Park's popularity by adopting to social expectations towards an image of an ideal confucian lady in the mass social imagination. Park, a short-cut, modest woman, who rather hides her sex than underlines it, very often speaks about her father's heritage that keeps her up to the image of the loyal, sacrificing daughter.

Chung Hee Sarah Soh mentions that woman's political success in East Asia is justified, among others, by cultural concept of yogol- a female hero who in extraordinary circumstances leads the group and deserves respect, but lives in a rather modest and ascetic way deprived of down to Earth joys of life ( like happy love for instance).

So far the image seems to be enough what it takes. The official website of Miss Park in the Accompishment box mentions... only promises and plans how it should be, but nothing on what has been done, initiated by her, watched by her or fixed by her.

In electoral polls Park Geun-hye is indeed supported by 45% of potential voters. However representative polls omit what the young generation thinks. It is interesting what they think? Do they think in Confucian way? Whether they vote for her or not?

In the survey done this year I made the attempt to test trends among the young generation of Koreans as the exploratory study for further research. Among people asked there had been 16 men and 4 women aged between 21 and 35. Only 2 (!) of them would vote for Miss Park. 17 of them can't mention any significant achievement that would justify so huge support she gets within the nation. 6 of them claim she is a bad leader ( Confucian thinking), and 16 of them clearly say that they won't vote for her because she represents the old corrupted establishment and ruling system based on family connections power concentration within clan and a lot of other issues they think should be stopped at last.

In that context it is not surprising that recent mayoral elections in Seoul had been won by an independent candidate, Park Won-soon, first ever independent candidate to win ever since Seoul holds local elections.

So will Park Geun-hye win the presidential elections in 2012? I would say yes. But it may be the last victory in her life. In next elections candidates may be still the same but the voters by then - will change.

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This article is based on the paper: Does confucianism stop women in politics? An exploratory study based on Park Geun- Hye. written for the interdisciplinary conference Women in Asia held in Warsaw School of Social Sciences and Humanities on April 15 2011, accepted.