Sleeping with the enemy - DMZ

Several recent posts supposed to be about G20 related stuff and the economy. But sometimes more important things pop up and nothing can be done about that.

Today North Korea shot 200 shells at the South Korean Yeongpyeong island  injuring 13 people and killing one and putting several dozens homes on fire.

Apart from sinking the Cheonan fregate that was the most important incident since the Korean War. Rising tensions in the region are caused by current power shift in North Korea where supposedly ill Kim Jong Il is trying to put his youngest son as a heir to the regime.

Last Monday I talked to colonel Ulf Persson who works at the Swedish base at Pammunjom. As we exchanged several diplomatic remarks as on such banquet occasions is normal, the colonel joked: "We are sleeping with the enemy".

Although for an average tourist DMZ is nothing special. The possibility of war apparently was so misty that South Korean business invented DMZ brand. Gadjets with DMZ, DMZ cola, DMZ t-shirts sell out very well among tourists who go for a trip to Panmunjom.

Despite that, chaos in the North is apparent. For many years status quo relied on simple exchange: we don't hurt you and you feed us in reward. North Korea was blackmailing doing something small from time to time and receiving economic aid as part of Sunshine Policy of the South government. So on one hand everyone earns money on anything they can and on the other those who have to be aware are aware and the silent tension of warzone is present in the air.

Now it is no longer that sure whether the game has still the same rules. It seems like there is some chaos in the North related to power shift. It is enough that small thing happens between fighting fractions and the war is ready.

The irony of fate is that DMZ is the only genuine ecosystem habitat in the entire penninsula. If the North and South is ever reunited this area might be one of the biggest National Parks in the world, and one of the only in this particular area, where development had paved everything in concrete across hundreds of kilometers. Typical irony of fate shows that where people can't boost, nature does, taking advantage of human hostilities.

China: key player in the Korean game

I have written last week about possible reactions of South Korean government to North Korea after the results of the Cheonan sinking investigation revealed last week.

One of the key roles in this situation holds China who has been North Korea's closest ally due to strategic reasons so far ( NK is a natural security layer from spreading harmful democratic ideas from SK citizens).

But recently it seems that it is changing. Any unstability is not good and maybe Beijing has come to the conclusion that North Korean leader is after all not predictable in his actions.

Today South Korean president Lee and Chinease prime minister meet and discuss possible common course towards North Korea, or at least Chinease admitting NK guilt, which would be a real breakthrough. Strong evidence presented by an international expert's commision shouldn't be ignored. There is a strong pressure on China to stop doing Public Relations and advert itself as a stabilizer and peacemaker, and finally start acting.

Meanwhile president Lee does exactly what he can do in this situation. As I have written last week, there is currently a show off with military power on the Yellow Sea, large scale maneuvers exercise the possibility of detecting NK submarines.

Last week I have mentioned as well that economy will suffer some shakes, and so it happens. But what is impressive is a decision to suspend trade, strongly against vital interests of Seoul's economy.

One thing happens normally- today all the workers in Kaeseong special economic zone went to work as usually including 650 circa of South Korean workers who daily cross the border and go to Kim Jong Il's world to work at industrial plants.  

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The photography comes from Korea Times

Mission Impossible

Sources close to Korean Government suspect direct North Korean involvement in Cheonan sinking. The chief prosecutor does not exclude the possibility of an underwater mine to be the cause of the event.

Even if tangible evidence of North Korean involvement emerges, the president’s caution and balanced behaviour will be understandable. Hot-blooded retaliation against a nuclear-armed neighbor would be a disaster for the entire region with strong possibility of foreign reaction, like China or USA, which are the main surrporters of south and north respectively.

So what's next? I had written about this on my polish blog two days ago. Nothing is next.

Next is a status quo in the situation, more South Korean aid for the North, more indoctrination in the North Korean tv, more jobs at Keseong Special Industrial Zone, more dollars flowing into NK budget.

What is possible resolution of this situation?
For as long as China directly or indirectly supports NK, there is none. United Nations will do nothing as they are paralised by China vote in the Security Council. USA will restrain and will only support SK just as it does for decades.

Google will cooperate with NK and will not publish North Korean maps on it's servers, press will be silent and so the world turns.

SK can only tighten it's security even more, though I have always been personally impressed by the discreet and efficient security system. USA can withdraw from trying to colonalise SK in economic terms and might consider selling their beef elsewhere.

NK plays the same role as Belarus in Europe. Is a border from democratic world which successfully helps stopping transformation and helps to keep control over number of processes.

In the mean time people in NK are dying of hunger and their government doesn't care.

National Branding and historical politics

....variety of ideas.
Today Korea Times has informed about the newest national advert in the US.
Korean ownership of the Dokdo Island will be promoted by 100 000 hand rubber bands in the USA, just after the full page article in New York Times and Times Square billboard.

This is just one of the actions of Korean authorities to promote the country and it's interests. Korean PR and soft power has been deeply involved in promoting Korean dramas ( soap operas) in the Far East, Korean music and contemporary youth bands, even Korean fashion brands.

This has caused increased numbers of Japanese and Chinease who travel to Korea just to learn the language or watch the house or caffeteria of their favorite amants from the soap operas ( here especially girls).

That would be enough on national branding in this post.

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There is however another interesting issue about Korean politics and foreign relations with it's neighbors.
Dokdo is an island otherwise called Takeshima by Japanese and is located in the sea south of Korean coast. There are some traces of natural resources on the island, but the whole conflict in Japan has deeper roots.

This is more about memory and historical politics. Japanese occupation has exceeded Hitler's regime in accuracy and implementation of methods and left huge traces of bad memories in both Koreas. So therefore the ownership of Dokdo is more a matter of national identity and common sense of harm which has never been excused for up till now. Historical politics in Korean education system builds many myths about nation's history as it helps to improve the identity and mobilizes human powers into any action for the common goal (whether real or imaginary).

There might be critics of such policy of the state which tells a lot of tales to Korean children, but on the other hand the same happens in Japan.

Contemporary Japan had not experience any denazification process as it was done in Germany post World War II. In the West it would not be accepted that Nazi officers are invited to tv stations where they are treated like national heroes in the 21st century in front of millions of young Japanese. This attitude is simmilar to the attitude of current Russian leaders who still try to deny the massacres of Katin ( see Katyń of Wajda if you are interested, but warning, the movie contains drastic scenes). However current Russian leaders stopped denying communist crimes, these crimes are nameless, they were done by anonymous people who "had their orders". This quote: "I had my orders" is also very often mentioned by Japanese veterans when they sometimes face more detailed quations about their actions during the war.

Tensions between Tokyo and Seoul are big and not easy to resolve. But time heals the wounds as I have mentioned before and young generation of Japanese raised on Korean Wave will show different attitude, also young generation of Koreans who have no historical burdens will be able to say: "It is past now. We will remember but we do not have to hate".

What will be with Dokdo then? I don't know, but knowing the energy of Koreans in fighting for their interests, it will be Dokdo and it will be Korean.

I am sorry if this post is not answering all as I write in haste this time.

Korea Times on Dokdo Bands:http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2010/04/123_63870.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mM1zyQ_zffM.... and this one a movie on Katin

Indo - Korean experience

... a short insight into Indo- Korean relations.

Two weeks ago I had an honor to join my Indian friends in the Indo - Korean cultural show organized by the Indian Embassy at Sogang University here in Seoul.

So far relations between two countries have been mostly economic. Korean chebols like Samsung or LG for instance, successfully established branches in India, independently governed as seperate equities.

Between unified confucianist nation and diversed and complex people of Dekan have not been so far a lot of cultural exchange or mutual interest.

One and half an hour long performance is a good start.
In the beginning we saw traditional singers from Nagaland - that is in the very north of India, as I have learned from Subho, they sang tribal theme based song.

I mostly enjoyed Bollywood dance show by 4 Korean girls, dressed in beautiful colorful dancing gowns.

There was also a show of Yoga Dance by Korean dance group and at the very end the show of Korean music drums.

In between the public was entertained with a part of an Indian play Bhagvat Gita in Korean. I should not forget about fusion music band.

Growing balance of trade between two countries made president of South Korea Lee Myeong- Bak be invited as a chief guest for 60th anniversary of Indian Constitution.

For that occasion The Times of India interviewed Mr President, who gave nice speech on bilateral relations. Full version of the interview is here: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-toi/all-that-matters/It-would-be-great-to-see-Indian-techies-in-South-Korea/articleshow/5493593.cms

Among many remarks Mr President made on the topic, I would adress two of them here.
I have to agree with the fact that Indian technical skills reach the level of genius combined with efficiency, hence most welcome everywhere, not only in Korea.

I would not agree though with the "green Korea" and definately with Korea as a leader in the "green growth". "Green" and "sustainable" are terms I am very familiar with.

Let's discuss sustainable heat saving architecture and efficient heating systems. Only recently I have seen any thermo protection layers put on newly built constructions. But it doesn't change the fact that hardly any door or window can stop the wind from blowing into the apartment.

Another "green" example. Lots of trush is put in the sea and in the rivers, not to mention the streets. Waste is private so noone really cares what farmers and owners of some enterprices in the countryside do with their trush.

Bigger companies do not give good example of sustainable policy as well. Posco which has the motto "Green and clean" is constantly polluting the Japanese Sea.

President Lee Myeong Bak is a man of action, transformed Seoul a lot. But it takes time before I am convinced that Korean society has any "green" or green attitude.


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Note: photos by Subho, thank you :)

North and South continued

If the divide between the two Koreas persist, and North Korea remains a closed country for many more years, will it become a new nation, with a new set of core values?

I assume one can only speculate about that. There has hardly been such situation on the global map before 20th century, as before that political powers fought one with another with it's borders quite open for average citizens. Any sort of fiercely guarded border is quite new invention, as well as communism and the Iron Courtain.

Nevertheless North Koreans are quite different by now in their mental attitude. They live a life of zoo animals who are fed, whose life is organized and who don't have to think much and don't really have to fight in life. Don't have to build up their careers, don't have to think about their career and future in the age of 7.

There is a risk that if that regime lasts sufficiently long, this may get so deep inside their mentality that even if it collapses they will not be really able to manage their lives. Such mental construct is called Homo Sovieticus.

The very same phenomenon explains why Russia struggles with autocratic power shift with quite passive social attitude.

In parallel South Korea faces crucial cultural changes these years. Since 2007 a lot has changed in the way people dress, bahave or in their values. The breakthrough generation slowly takes over. This generation is less and less obedient and collectivist. It will still take another 50 years or so, but it happens on our eyes - South Korea is changing into the modern democratic capitalist state. The self responsibility for one's life will grow. Growing freedom imposes greater self reliance and responsibility of a person. Even now average South Korean citizen is used to minimal state aid and has to manage his own life independently.

The pace of time will add it's influence and the feeling of "oneness" will vanish. I guess there will be two separate Korean nations.

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Fresh news say that North Korea faces wave of food shortages again. Growing number of citizens escape abroad.

The only way for the regime to collapse is the same attitude of USA which made USSR collapse. Constant economic aid for regime is not doing to it's citizens any better, it will very likely compromize their minds. Just as it happens in other totalitarian states which entered global economy - if you obey then you're rich. If you don't obey, then you stay poor. I guess that will be the entirely new category of people.

North, South and the bomb

The cold knocks me off but I can't sleep so I decided to write.

Albert recently asked me if the North Korean nuclear project is seen by South Koreans as a common Korean weapon which might be used against Japan.

I have read Huntington articles in Foreign Affairs, but I didn't get hold on his book so far. I cannot really refer in detailed way to what was written about North - South Korea relations in that book, but nevertheless I understand the idea.

There is a certain borderline between generations in Korean society. Young people in their 30's usually consider North Korea as a non-friendly state, or at least totally different country. Some of my Korean friends being asked that question give the very same answers, admitting though that despite anything they are aware that the language there is the same and people think similar as well.

But those who set the course of South Korean foreign affairs are people in their 50's and 60's. They are as well supported by their entire generation. That generation hoped for reconciliation and reunification of two countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War between USA and USSR. In both countries Japanese occupation left scars which need a lot of time to be healed. Children of people who experienced that invasion were raised with hatred in their minds and hearts.

The very same generation shares the attitude to historic Koguryeo land which is acclaimed by Poeple's Republic of China as historically chinease and which partially is situated in modern North Korea and China. Considering the possibility of reunification with the North, South Korea calls for recognition of historic Koguryeo as a part of long term foreign policy strategy. If it happens one day that the country is unified, it is better to protect interests of the northern sister.

Korea was the first state affected by Japanese colonial system, with it's economy not rich, but the closest. From Pusan to Simonoseki there is only 120 miles, when to Singapore 2800. The country's resources, labor force, agriculture and whatever else has been engaged into war machinery of occupant from the very beginning ( see more at Andrew Grajdanzev, Modern Korea, New York 1941). Korean climate was another reason for military action. It is rather friendly climate, not much struck by typhoons which very often attacked other territories conquered by Japan, with short monsoon season and large number of days with sunshine during the year.

That hatred was even bigger as the pre-occupation Choson state didn't really develop navy or merchandise. It's glory time passed away. Waclaw Sieroszewski says in his book Korea. Land and People. that the ethnic self perception of Koreans was close to none. In 1905 it was the agricultural society dominated by feudal beurocratic aparatus and the rulers either didn't want or had no possibilities to built the modern state. There wasn't any Korean marine, the trade was served by Japanese merchants and boats, and the city of Pusan was by that time divided into rich Japanese settlement and Korean poor ghetto.

That might be partially the reason why the hatred towards Japan is so big, and why the history books say both true and untrue stories about the eastern neighbor from the islands. Both North Korean and South Korean history books. Helplessness of own rulers is not an issue to consciously consider and noone would speak about it loud.

Common sense tells that time would heal every wound if only people don't stop it's influence. Current generation considers Korea on the global map with reasonable aproach. Korean wave makes quantities of Japanese people coming to Korea to study language and culture. Also in Japan, people around 30 think differently and have no Korean resentiments.

It depends on who will take over the political power in two countries within 20 years from now. There is a huge chance that at least South Korean - Japanese bilateral relations will settle down and become if not friendly than at least normal.

With recent fire exchange over the questionable coastline between two Korean states and fierce embrace of communism in the North and not welcoming attitude among the South, two Korean sister states will drift away from each other and definately will not become one within predictable time.