Korea...Poland, some comparisons

Today "International" Committee for Aviation Crash Investigation (MAK in Russian) with general Anodina on it's lead had published "report" on Smolensk crash which occured on April 10th near Smolensk in Russia. In this catastrophe the President of Poland with his wife and 94 other leaders, congressmen, intellectuals together with whole crew were died.

Initially it supposed to be a turning point in Polish-Russian relations. Two days before "Katyn" was allowed to be shown only on Russia Today which is an english language TV station with popularity not exceeding 2% of the society. After the crash "breakthrough" step allowed a movie to be shown on other Russian TV stations.

In Poland a stream of dezinformation, different opinions, attitudes followed with PM blind belief in new modern Russia which will stand up to the call of modern western investigation with solid and transparent standards in it's base.

So we had been waiting for the outcome and as predicted MAK accused the Air Force Chief general Blasik for being drunk and for shouting on pilots in the cocpit.

In the meanwhile Dmitrij Medvedev, president of Russia visited Poland. Journalists were covering this visit emphasising with genuine pride how secured is this visit, how many choppers, secret service agents and panzer cars are there so noone would know in which of them president Medvedev really is.


It is difficult to reach bigger contrast. Back in Smolensk there was just one Secret Service agent without any gun covering security of the ambassador Bahr more than the president of Poland, airport, airfield remembering of sheep-run more than of modern sophisticated airport. That all surrounded by woods and city's dumpster mount and a barrack which certainly would use some renovation pretending to be control tower. In that "control tower" there were 3 guys all of whom had never been taken for interrogation by Polish prosecutors.
If I was told that these are the conditions offered for a visit of a foreign head of the state, several years ago I would not believe.
This resemble some long term submissive prejudice residing in brains of old generation in power in Poland. Generation in media and in politics. They consider such circumstances as normal and a matter of fact because Russia is bigger and their president deserves better treatment. I can imagine what would Russian media say if we told president Medvedev to land on a sheep-run.

Do I suspect a foul play? Yes I do, at least in a way the "investigation" is being done. Pieces of the aircraft are still to be found near the site. The wreckage was not even covered with anything and money from bank accounts of the victims had been stolen using their bank cards, this is how well the site was secured.

Was it an assasination? Who knows. I personally favor carelessness of the "control tower". What if really drunken guys were sitting there and reacted too slowly? But on the contrary I must admit that the control tower leader Plusin suggested to redirect the flight into the spare airport. From the transcript of the control tower talks at some point he says "Fuck, for now they insist to bring the plane down". Who is "they"? This should be clearly stated in the MAK report and it isn't. MAK report totally ignores the control tower transcript of all communication, not only with the plane but also with other people on the phone and those present in the building.

Also straight after the catastrophe my blog had been viewed by a very weird Moscow based business in the control of internet activity, market research. They are apparently not interested in Korean issues because they stopped watching my blog just after I stopped mentioning the crash.

How is it all related to Korea? I remember Cheonan sinking this year. Immediate international investigation, rushed legal proceedings and quick and clear results which happen to be accurate. If South Korean Air Force One crashed on the Russian territory, the investigation would be immediately Korean. They would not even ask anyone if they can or cannot. They would do, what they usually do, act first and worry later.

This is why I love Korea. One of the many many reasons.

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On the side. Crashes like that are very popular movie topics, also it is possible to get Pulitzer if a journalist touches such topic. But up to date noone is asking any inconvenient questions about how the MAK investigation was done.

Meanwhile president Medvedev walks on the red carpet in Warsaw. He will probably eat cavior in the presidential palace and smile to a few photos.

Sleeping with the enemy part 2

Yesterday I attended Christmas dinner at my ambassador's residence.

As we had been talking and mingling among each other the topic of recent events came up naturally and we had been wondering what comes next in inter- Korean relations and how it may affect our lives as expatriates.

Although general public does not care at all, the government does. At some point I said that I admire their cold-blooded reaction for Cheonan sinking in March, as in the West it would probably result in war. My current boss said that the chain of avoiding responsibility and pushing decisions as high up as possible is what makes that cold-blooded reaction. I cannot repeat here all the comments and remarks for obvious reasons. Although everyone agreed that life in Korea is like sleeping with the enemy. I heard that once from Swedish colonel from the Panmunjom base. In my recent coverage for press it is confirmed by many statements from guys who had accomplished military service. The threat is there and life goes on. Thrilling and toxic in one.

A year ago one of my readers asked me what would be the path to reunification and whether I believe in it or not. And if I could describe North and South Koreans as two different nations. I ask such questions very often and I see that the attitude varies depending on the generation and on the position. Older people repeat like mantra that there are only one Koreans and that South Korea moves on behalf of North in the international scene as well. The theme of broken families appears every now and then too.

But younger generation if asked really thoroughly replies clearly that North Korea is a problem, but it should be reseolved differently and that even if the regime changes one day they do not want 20 million of hungry people to be fed at their expense. They do not want higher taxes and no longer feel any kinship. If it was me to bet what is going to happen in the future, I bet that there will be two Korean states. They will maybe merge one day but only in a federation and only if the North catches up economically.

Are they two nations? Maybe... already yes maybe not yet. But... the first layer of Korean mentality is hierarchy and kinship - this is common for both South Koreans and North Koreans. Equally important in both societies. But the core difference is in the layer which was created very recently - the attitude to consumerism and competition. The attitude to democracy and acceptance of different ideas. Despite some 50 000 North Koreans who stay hidden in China and numbers in other countries, majority is behind the iron curtain brainwashed and convinced that elsewhere are only problems, diseases, AIDS, terrorism, etc. If even some of them watch South Korean dramas in secrecy, there is a chance that their mindset is non-capable of accepting modern capitalistic competition and requires a lot to be just given - a phenomenon known as homo sovieticus. South Koreans are totally different. Accept rat's race and competition, public debates, differences in the opinions as part of the normal daily life. My answer is yes, they are on the way to split forever.

China: key player in the Korean game

I have written last week about possible reactions of South Korean government to North Korea after the results of the Cheonan sinking investigation revealed last week.

One of the key roles in this situation holds China who has been North Korea's closest ally due to strategic reasons so far ( NK is a natural security layer from spreading harmful democratic ideas from SK citizens).

But recently it seems that it is changing. Any unstability is not good and maybe Beijing has come to the conclusion that North Korean leader is after all not predictable in his actions.

Today South Korean president Lee and Chinease prime minister meet and discuss possible common course towards North Korea, or at least Chinease admitting NK guilt, which would be a real breakthrough. Strong evidence presented by an international expert's commision shouldn't be ignored. There is a strong pressure on China to stop doing Public Relations and advert itself as a stabilizer and peacemaker, and finally start acting.

Meanwhile president Lee does exactly what he can do in this situation. As I have written last week, there is currently a show off with military power on the Yellow Sea, large scale maneuvers exercise the possibility of detecting NK submarines.

Last week I have mentioned as well that economy will suffer some shakes, and so it happens. But what is impressive is a decision to suspend trade, strongly against vital interests of Seoul's economy.

One thing happens normally- today all the workers in Kaeseong special economic zone went to work as usually including 650 circa of South Korean workers who daily cross the border and go to Kim Jong Il's world to work at industrial plants.  

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The photography comes from Korea Times

Cheonan sinking by NK Torpedo

As it was said two days ago the results of the multinational experts investigation on the sinking of the South Korean military ship are revealed to day stating with no doubt that it was a North Korean torpedo which caused the blast and death of 50 soldiers.

The joint experts commitee has worked since the end of March 2010 just after the explosion. It consists of 25 experts from ten domestic professional institutes, 22 military experts, three lawmakers from related National Assembly committees and 24 foreign experts from the U.S., Australia, the U.K. and Sweden. The group was divided into four departments: forensic science, explosive pattern analysis, hull structure and data analysis.

The results say with no doubt that it was a North Korean 250kg torpedo CHT-02D which hit the South Korean ship. Parts of the torpedo with original North military markings were found on the site of the catastrophe.

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The question is: what now? Where does it aim?
The current president of South Korea, Mr Lee is known for his much harder course towards Kim Jong Il and it is very likely that some serious measures will be conducted. But...

South Korean economy and civil prosperity, the very core of its potential is located in Seoul which is very close to DMZ. To close to risk any actions without threatening the success of two yuppie generations and their wealth - and South Koreans put a big value on their wealth. Despite their national pride and patriotism/nationalism they are not likely to risk their nice cars and homes for war with the North.

Even bigger factor are SK cheabols which founded Kaeseong Economy Zone and used to make enourmous profits on NK cheap labour power. Cheabols bosses are the SK aristocracy - the most influential in politics both domestic and overseas. They have not once tried to convince SK government on less hard treatment of NK because of potential and real profits for their companies - and for the entire economy.

Rice farmers also push on exporting their products to NK especially in times of hunger.

What will happen in such situation?
President Lee will very likely improve founds for national defence system, train more troops, and buy more weapons.

He will also push on the US - SK free trade act which will make US more friendly towards Lee even in times of Obama in the White House.

The South Korean economy will suffer some hits from panicked investors on stock exchange and the KRW exchange rate will shake a bit.

Apart from that the world will turn as it turns. The possibilities of President Lee on move on this chessboard are slight, but he will do what he can.

The question remains if there is any power to stop Kim Jong Il from such actions, external power. Kim Jong Il regularly meets with Hu Jintao and negotiates both on help in hunger relief and both on tight border security to stop escapes through mainland China. It is certain and confirmed that Hu Jintao tries to push Kim on reforms in his system, but it seems - effortlessly. China either doesn't try hard enough or more likely has no real power of influence on NK so there is a very little hope for international talks on reconciliation progress.

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PS1.
How different it is from the effortless and omiting investigation after the crash of Tu 154 near Smolensk. Two months and we have results.


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PS2. I am now in Warsaw until August so my reports and analysis come with some hours delay.

Mission Impossible

Sources close to Korean Government suspect direct North Korean involvement in Cheonan sinking. The chief prosecutor does not exclude the possibility of an underwater mine to be the cause of the event.

Even if tangible evidence of North Korean involvement emerges, the president’s caution and balanced behaviour will be understandable. Hot-blooded retaliation against a nuclear-armed neighbor would be a disaster for the entire region with strong possibility of foreign reaction, like China or USA, which are the main surrporters of south and north respectively.

So what's next? I had written about this on my polish blog two days ago. Nothing is next.

Next is a status quo in the situation, more South Korean aid for the North, more indoctrination in the North Korean tv, more jobs at Keseong Special Industrial Zone, more dollars flowing into NK budget.

What is possible resolution of this situation?
For as long as China directly or indirectly supports NK, there is none. United Nations will do nothing as they are paralised by China vote in the Security Council. USA will restrain and will only support SK just as it does for decades.

Google will cooperate with NK and will not publish North Korean maps on it's servers, press will be silent and so the world turns.

SK can only tighten it's security even more, though I have always been personally impressed by the discreet and efficient security system. USA can withdraw from trying to colonalise SK in economic terms and might consider selling their beef elsewhere.

NK plays the same role as Belarus in Europe. Is a border from democratic world which successfully helps stopping transformation and helps to keep control over number of processes.

In the mean time people in NK are dying of hunger and their government doesn't care.

Cheonan soldiers recovered

The bodies of remaining 36 missing soldiers from South Korean frigate Cheonan were recovered lately.

Two weeks ago the frigate sank from unknown reasons and only 58 of the 104 crew on board had been saved.

Cold nerves of Defence Council, president Lee and Korean People had prevented the outbreak of conflict with North Korea.

However Mr President Lee says that the investigation has to be thorough, detailed and fast to finally know the causes of the tragedy.

For all Korean people, I am sorry for your loss.