Sources close to Korean Government suspect direct North Korean involvement in Cheonan sinking. The chief prosecutor does not exclude the possibility of an underwater mine to be the cause of the event.
Even if tangible evidence of North Korean involvement emerges, the president’s caution and balanced behaviour will be understandable. Hot-blooded retaliation against a nuclear-armed neighbor would be a disaster for the entire region with strong possibility of foreign reaction, like China or USA, which are the main surrporters of south and north respectively.
So what's next? I had written about this on my polish blog two days ago. Nothing is next.
Next is a status quo in the situation, more South Korean aid for the North, more indoctrination in the North Korean tv, more jobs at Keseong Special Industrial Zone, more dollars flowing into NK budget.
What is possible resolution of this situation?
For as long as China directly or indirectly supports NK, there is none. United Nations will do nothing as they are paralised by China vote in the Security Council. USA will restrain and will only support SK just as it does for decades.
Google will cooperate with NK and will not publish North Korean maps on it's servers, press will be silent and so the world turns.
SK can only tighten it's security even more, though I have always been personally impressed by the discreet and efficient security system. USA can withdraw from trying to colonalise SK in economic terms and might consider selling their beef elsewhere.
NK plays the same role as Belarus in Europe. Is a border from democratic world which successfully helps stopping transformation and helps to keep control over number of processes.
In the mean time people in NK are dying of hunger and their government doesn't care.
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